贸易战谁赢了?耶鲁教授说出美国贸易赤字的真相

日期:2020-01-19 23:41:34 作者:期货资讯 浏览:177 次

(原标题:贸易战谁赢了?耶鲁教授灵魂拷问,“谈恋爱”吵架谁能赢?)

导读

情侣吵架没有胜利者,结局不是握手言和,就是两败俱伤。耶鲁大学高级研究员史蒂芬·罗奇(Stephen Roach)认为,中美经贸问题答案也一样。“恋爱中产生矛盾,需要双方达成共识”,而不是“甩锅”给其中一方。

在第八期“新时代大讲堂”上,罗奇从经济学的角度断了一场“家务事”。他直言:“贸易赤字的原因是预算赤字带来的低储蓄率,这是我们的错。但是我们不想承认,因为把它怪罪给中国更容易。”

重温这段演讲,从一个浅显易懂的比喻出发,罗奇剖析了中美经贸摩擦因何而来又将何去何从。

史蒂芬·罗奇 在第八期“新时代大讲堂”上 的英文主旨演讲

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你们有谁现在正处在一段恋爱关系之中?行了,别扭扭捏捏的。 How many of you are in a relationship? Come on. Don't be bashful.好吧。你们曾经在与伴侣的争执中获胜过吗?如果有,请举手。 Okay. Have you ever won a fight with your partner ever? Raise your hands if you have.这有一个。这还有一个。你们坐在一起的啊。了解了。 Oh, there's someone. Oh, two. You… you're sitting together. Okay.很好,非常好! That's good. That's very good.

贸易战谁赢了?耶鲁教授说出美国贸易赤字的真相


在一段关 系中若要解决问题,以我作为一名业余的“经济心理学家”来看,需要双方共同努力认清各自在问题产生中扮演的角色,共同承担责任。 To resolve problems in relationships, in my humble opinion as an amateur economic psychologist, requires both partners to work together to agree on mutual responsibility for the roles they play in causing problems.

美国应如此,中国也一样。 我们需要共同努力,构建持久的关系。 And I would say that's true of the United States. It's also true of China. Both of us need to work better in building a lasting relationship.

左边是一项位于华盛顿的皮尤研究中心进行的民意调查结果,调查了近15年来美国民众对中国的看法。 On the left it is...the latest reading from a poll put out by the Pew Research Center in Washington, which samples American views toward China over the last 15 years.

持负面看法的比例在2019年创下新高,比一年前增长了13个百分点,是这项调查自启动以来比例最高的一年。参与这项调查的人显然不太爱中国。 Unfavorable hit a record high this year, up 13 percentage points from a year ago, the highest in the inception this survey. The ones in this survey didn't particularly love China.

有害的政治观点很不幸已经渗透到了主流社会。而且很显然这种观点在两党都存在,无论是共和党还是民主党。 While the poisonous political views in the United States...unfortunately, have permeated into mainstream as well. And this is a view that is evident on a bipartisan basis, Republicans and Democrats alike.

贸易战没有真正的赢家

贸易战中无人获胜。 No one wins a trade war.

这是采购经理人指数,衡量中美两国的制造业活动。 This is purchasing managers' sentiment, which measures manufacturing activity in the US and China.

你猜怎么着,我们两方都在输。 这条线显示了制造业是在扩张还是收缩。 And guess what? We're both losing. This is the line which denotes whether the manufacturing sector is expanding or contracting.

今年(2019)8月,两国都出现了收缩迹象。 In August of this year, last month, we both went into negative territory.

来看看股市。 这张图显示了中美股市走势。 这是2018年7月6日,贸易战首日关税生效时的股市表现。 Look at the stock market. It shows the equity markets, US and China, day one of the trade war when the tariffs first went into effect, July 6, 2018.

自从那时起,两边的股市都有震荡。 中国股市实际上比美国股市上涨多一倍。 Since that period, both markets have gone up and down. The Chinese market is actually up twice as much as the US market.

谁在赢得贸易战? 贸易战中没有真正的赢家。 Who's winning the trade war? No one is really winning the trade war.

因为我们与中国的关系,使得美国经济遭受持续性创伤。 这种观点并非凭空出现。 The view that America is suffering lasting damage because of our relationship with China is not something that we made up out of thin air.

贸易战谁赢了?耶鲁教授说出美国贸易赤字的真相


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